CRUDE OIL
One of the key reasons that we see Canadian energy stocks outperforming is due to the mistaken view that we have no growth options. This is far from the truth. Both crude oil and natural gas have decent or great growth potential in the next decade.
For crude oil:
- Enbridge will be bringing on the Line 3 replacement in Q4/19 (Chart #30) and in 2021 the T-South expansion.
- Egress over the next three years will add over 800Kb/d just by Enbridge (Charts #31, 32, 33, and 34). Add on TMX, an expansion from 300Kb/d to 890Kb/d and you have over 1.3Mb/d of new capacity. Given we produce now 5.4Mb/d and ship 3.5Mb/d to the US, this is a very nice increase for the industry. Add in higher commodity prices and you will have much higher cash flows over the next few years.
Chart #30
Enbridge Oil Expansions
Enterprise-wide Secured Growth Project Inventory
Source: Enbridge Investment Community Presentation October 2019
Chart #31
Near Term Growth – Enbridge Oil Expansions
Ex-WCSB Egress
Source: Enbridge Investment Community Presentation October 2019
Chart #32
Near Term Growth – Enbridge Oil Expansions
Near-term Optimizations/Expansions
Source: Enbridge Investment Community Presentation October 2019
Chart #33
Near Term Growth – Enbridge Oil Expansions
Mainline Optimization and Enhancement Opportunities
Source: Enbridge Investment Community Presentation October 2019
Chart #34
Near Term Growth – Enbridge Oil Expansions
Line 3 Replacement Project
Source: Enbridge Investment Community Presentation October 2019