RESEARCH PROCESS
Josef lives at the intersection of big picture thinking, technical and financial analysis and on the ground common sense.
Until you understand what’s going on globally that might impact the oil and gas sector, you can’t understand the challenges and opportunities facing the regional producers. In his presentations, as well as his research, Josef takes the global perspective, puts it into the context of regional and local implications and from there, highlights companies that have what it takes to meet the challenges and become successful. It’s a rigorous and time-consuming process.
GLOBAL
EVENTS
- Worldwide demand
- Storage levels worldwide
- Regional Insurgencies
- ISIS and other terrorist activities in oil producing countries
- Failing or corrupt governments
- World Banks’ activity
- Currency fluctuations
- US$
- OPEC and non-OPEC producer strategies
- LNG activity
- Impact of Sanctions
- Climate Change Issues
- Geo-political issues
- Pipeline access
- Facilities & Pipelines construction timelines
- First Nations’ issues impact on production growth
- Widening or shrinking contangos
COMPANY
RESEARCH
- Knows the CEOs and Executives
- Meets with companies
- Visits sites when required
- Easy Phone Access
- Reputation: honesty and integrity
- Projects make sense
- Knows Team History
- Analyses: quarterly & annual financial reports
- Attends company presentations & conference calls
- Reviews legal filings
- Support of Bankers and suppliers
- Low operating Costs
- High Impact Exploration Upside
- Manageable decline rates
- 1P & 2P Reserve Life Indices
- Growing Production
- Balance Sheets show Financial Capacity
FUNDAMENTALS &
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- Bullish/Bearish Indicators
- Rig Counts
- Oil & Gas Charts
- WTI Charts
- Injection Charts
- Historical Knowledge
- Net Asset Value
- Reserves Analysis
- Book Value vs Historical trading ranges
- S&P Energy Bullish Percentage Index
- Supply and Demand Cycle
- Energy Indices
- Futures Positions of speculative and commercial positions
- Individual Company Stock
- Charts and trends
Three variables must be taken into account to come to an overall energy sector rating: Value, Sentiment and Technical conditions of the sector.
Value
Value means that companies in general have attractive valuations versus historic financial measures, such as low operating and finding costs, growing production, cheap on a price to net asset value or book value, stable and improving balance sheets, and meaningful growth plans.
Sentiment
The S&P Percentage Bullish Index indicates where we are in the sentiment cycle. When the indicator is above 90% it highlights a market in frenzy and a top is likely thereafter. When the indicator is below 10% bullish it indicates a high level of fear, and that is precisely when it is the best time to invest.
Technicals
We use technical analysis tools to identify high and low risk entry points for the sector and for individual stocks. We look to see if the current stock price is cheap or expensive versus historic measures including energy commodity prices.
When these three factors become aligned and all give a green light, ones chances of making low risk, high reward investment decisions are improved.
TRACK RECORD
I wanted to give you some idea of the impact of my Research Process, showing the possibilities that come with amazing buying windows after markets plunge. One’s patience can be well-rewarded. In early 2016 I saw such an opportunity and recommended a lengthy list of companies at the World Outlook Financial Conference (WOFC) in Vancouver held on January 29th and 30th.
One year later at the 2017 conference held on February 3rd and 4th, my list had done extremely well and those investors who attended Michael Campbell’s conference will remember the charts shown in both years. They caused quite a stir!
Our Recommended BUY List included all sized companies and covered Energy, Energy Service and Infrastructure stocks that we felt had compelling value in early 2016 and were proved right in early 2017.
Returns After the 2014-2016 Market Plunge
Great Upside for Those Who Waited
Click to enlarge
Source: SER Presentation at WOFC, February 2017
