Schachter Energy Report

Eye on Energy: May 7
Schachter's Eye on Energy

Next Stock Market Decline To Set Up Bargain Window For Energy Stocks.

I head to Montreal today to speak at a Peterson Capital Conference focused on Investment Advisors and Family Investment Offices interested in the energy sector. A number of energy companies are attending as well as Presenters from other industry groups. I look forward to candid discussions, great food, and nice walks around old Montreal and its great art galleries. Maybe I’ll even get to eat a great bagel or two!  

Global Economic, Political & Military Update

Trump Tariffs are getting the most attention for deals (White House optimism) with 15 countries before the end of the 90 day window and no deals have yet come to fruition. Japan and Korea were expected to be first but changes in the political leadership in each country is delaying any deals.  This would be painful economically for both countries if Trump gets what he wants. US Secretary Scott Bessent is heading to Switzerland to initiate discussion to direct talks with China but this may be just to break the deadlock and start talks. Getting deals done will help the US trade deficit over time. The data for March showed imports rose to US$419B from US$401B as importers brought in as much goods as they could before the tariffs were initiated. US Exports remained at US$278B so no progress there. The overall deficit was US$140.5B up from US$123B in February.  Tariff collections have started and the US gained US$15.9B in April, up from US$9.6B in March. US lawmakers were annoyed that Ryanair has picked a Chinese plane to replace ordered Boeing planes that are way behind schedule in its deliveries. 

I remain concerned that a Geopolitical Challenge will take place and be the ‘Black Swan’ to take the general stock markets to our downside targets. The list of areas of concern has expanded. 

First, India and Pakistan are now fighting over terrorist attacks into India by Kashmir separatists calling themselves Kashmir Resistance and linked to militant group Laskar-e-Taiba. India did 9 attacks on terrorist locations but held off attacking Pakistani military bases. Pakistan claims it shot down five Indian planes and plans further action if this escalates, which is very likely. China, an ally of Pakistan and Russia, an ally of India, are now watching this confrontation to see if it spreads into a nuclear exchange. 

Second, China is increasing its military exercises around Taiwan and needs to redirect its citizens from the trade war, layoffs at plants, deflationary forces in housing. New outposts near the Philippines have shown the expansion plans of China’s military. To help alleviate on the economic front China yesterday lowered lending rates by 10 points and gave the banks a nice gift lowering bank reserve requirements by 50 points. China has halted all US LNG imports and has turned to Australian gas. China exports rose 12% in March as it shipped everywhere the most goods it could before tariffs started. China has increased the size of its military exercises around Taiwan and with the US distracted by trade wars, Iran negotiations, and possibly a recession; the chances of China blockading or invading Taiwan rises. US Indo-Pacific Command sees escalating preparations for a military attack against Taiwan rising at a ‘rapid boil’.  If China throws a bone to advance the trade talks it might offer concessions regarding Fentanyl and its precursor chemicals. 

Third, Iran has shown no willingness to end its nuclear program and at some point the US will move to add strongly applied sanctions to cripple their economy. Trump plans to threaten to cut off US trade with any countries that buy Iranian oil. This is aimed at Iran’s major buyer China. Iran crude exports in April were 1.6 Mb/d .

US stocks are lifting today on hopes that the China talks in Switzerland will see a breakthrough. The next trade problems or one of the ‘black swans’ above could drive  stock prices for the general stock market lower in May. 

Our expected downside targets are:

  • Dow Jones Industrials Index 35,000 (now 41,045)
  • S&P 500  4,800 now (now 5,634)
  • NASDAQ 13,000 (now 17,779)
  • S&P/TSX Energy Index <225 (now 237)
  • WTI  <US$56-58/b (now US$59.49/b)

As this decline progresses in the coming weeks we should see more capitulation from leveraged investors who get nasty margin calls. Intermarket pressure should take energy stocks down as well as the overvalued tech sector (AI and semiconductor stocks the most overvalued still) and provide energy investors with the next low risk BUY window. This should trigger a Table Pounding BUY signal during the second half of May and we will send out to SER subscribers another Action Alert with new BUY ideas. 

The Trump tariffs have still not been seen by customers as inventories of current stock need to be sold and then new imported items will carry the tariffs and become relatively expensive. This is now expected to hit stores in June. Stores such as auto dealerships are seeing good traffic now as buyers complete transactions at current prices before the tariff rise. 

The war drums are beating and any miscalculation could set off some more regional wars. The US military is overstretched and its munition stocks are low from supporting Ukraine.  Europe, Japan, the UK and Australia all have the same empty munition stocks. China knows this and could take advantage of the trade war and turn it into a real war. There can be no real winners if a conflagration commences. 

Russia has stated that they have recovered all of the land that Ukraine fought and captured in Russia. They succeeded with the help of North Korean and Chinese forces and weaponry. This may now provide a window for diplomacy to get a ceasefire and end the war. Putin, having gained back his land, may now be more willing to do a deal before President Trump gets angrier and places painful sanctions on Russia. 

We have not yet seen in the current market decline a lot of disgorgement of assets. Investors, especially retail investors have been buying the dips. Historically at market bottoms they are in fear mode and selling. Panic climactic action is always seen at market bottoms and we expect this to occur in the coming weeks. Use this market mayhem to add to your favourite energy positions. If we are right that by year end Iran will lose production of >1.5 Mb/d and Venezuela > 500 Kb/d then there will be a significant shortage of crude production and prices will lift over US$80/b. Remember global inventories are low historically so even a 1 Mb/d shortfall can drive prices up materially. 

For the energy sector we have bargain levels right now. We have already gotten all three of our BUY indicators saying BUY. The third one and the most reliable historically is the S&P Energy Bullish Percent Index. When this reaches over 90% it is  time to take profits and when under 10% a BUY signal. In March 2020 it fell to a Table pounding BUY level of 3.7%. In early April it plunged to 0% and stayed at that level for three days. The only other reading this low was in 2008 at the worst levels for the market averages and stocks during the financial crisis. Use upcoming weakness to BUY your favourite energy investments and consider moving to a full weighting; whatever that is for your personal portfolio needs. Check with your investment manager/advisor to make appropriate individual company decisions. 

For long term investors, find the ideas you want to own for this energy (and most commodities) super cycle and put your BUY orders below the market on plunging days to get great bargains for significant appreciation into the end of this decade.

If you want to see our Action Alert BUYS, sign up now for access to the Schachter Energy Research reports.

EIA Weekly Oil Data:

The EIA data for last week was a modestly negative report. While Commercial Stocks fell 2.0 Mb to 438.4 Mb, the SPR rose 0.6 Mb to 399.1 Mb. This is a good time to refill the SPR with prices so cheap. Motor Gasoline Stocks rose 0.2 Mb while Distillate Fuel inventories fell 1.1 Mb. Overall Stocks rose 1.7 Mb to 1,612.4 Mb. Exports fell 115 Kb/d to 4.00 Mb/d. Refinery Utilization rose 0.4% to 89.0% but was up from 88.5% in 2024.

US Production fell 98 Kb/d to 13.37 Mb/d as companies slowed drilling at current weak commodity prices. Overall product demand rose 718 Kb/d to 19.87 Mb/d, as Other Oils demand rose 500 Kb/d to 4.40 Mb/d. Motor Gasoline consumption fell 381 Kb/d to 8.71 Mb/d offset by Jet fuel demand that rose 474 Kb/d to 2.02 Mb/d. Cushing Inventories fell 700 Kb/d to 25.0 Mb. This is below the 2024 level of 35.3 Mb. 

Overall US demand is up 1.2% to 20.11 Mb/d up from last year’s 19.86 Mb/d while Gasoline demand is up 0.5% to 8.61 Mb/d from last year’s 8.57 Mb/d. 

EIA Weekly Natural Gas Data

Last week there was an injection of 107 Bcf. This raised storage to 2.04 Tcf with the biggest increase coming in the South Central area at 34 Bcf. NYMEX is now at  US$3.51/mcf. In 2024 there was a 92 Bcf injection and for the five-year average injection was 67 Bcf. US Storage is now 17.8% below last year’s level of 2.41 Tcf and 0.2% above the five year average of 2.04 Tcf. 

We recommend buying the very depressed natural gas stocks during periods of market weakness. Natural gas stocks are very cheap now. We see much much higher gas prices in 2H/25 as quite a number of new LNG plants come onstream over the next 12 months; one in Canada and two more in the US. In Canada the first train of LNG Canada comes on during summer (first shipment expected in July) and in the US Corpus Christi Stage 3 begins production of LNG (1.5 Bcf/d). In 2025, Golden Pass LNG is bringing on the first two trains of this new three train export facility. US LNG exports reached a new high of 15.8 Bcf/d in March. AECO is trading at C$2.15/mcf. We look for AECO to rise to over C$3.00/mcf in Q4/25 and over C$3.50/mcf during winter 2025-2026. Higher prices should come as more LNG plants ramp up on the BC coast. 

LNG tankers are being redirected from Asian customers to Europe as prices are much higher there. European natural gas prices are around US$15/mcf (versus US$13/mcf in Asia) as storage is depleting quite quickly. European inventories are <33% of capacity.  Rebuilding storage to the required 90% level by November 1st  for winter 2025-2026 will be a big challenge across Europe and should keep import prices high. 

Baker Hughes Rig Data

In the data for the week ending May 2nd, the US rig count saw a decrease of 3 rigs to 584 rigs as crude prices retreated under US$60/b for WTI. US Rig activity is now 3.5% below the level of 605 rigs working last year. Of the total US rigs working last week, 479 were drilling for oil and this is 4.0% below last year’s level of 499 rigs working. The natural gas rig count is down 1.0% from last year’s 102 rigs, now at 101 rigs. This overall decline in drilling should continue for a few more months as the industry waits to see Trump’s industry support especially on the regulatory side and of a needed commodity price recovery. Approval of new infrastructure will also be closely watched. WTI prices at below US$60/b at this time (US$59.49/b today), have slowed energy companies drilling plans. Current oil and gas prices are not sufficient to justify incremental drilling. Companies remain financially disciplined despite the Trump administration edict to ‘ drill baby drill’. WTI will need to exceed US$80/b for some time before drilling activity picks up materially for crude. Natural gas needs to be over US$4.00 for NYMEX to incentivize natural gas drilling activity. President Trump is in glee over the lower price of crude and lower gasoline prices; one of his election promises. 

In Canada, there was a 8 rig decrease to 120 rigs as breakup comes to more areas. This rig activity rate is now flat with last year’s 120 rigs. Natural gas rigs working are 46 down 23.3% from 60 in 2024. The oil rig count is up 23% to 74 rigs compared to 60 working at this time in 2024, as oil volumes can be moved via the TMX line west and there is still some capacity to move crude south to the US. With the election done and the industry waiting to see if the Liberals will be anti-oil and gas it is likely that drilling will slow. If so, the TMX expansion may take 2-3 years to fill.  

Energy Stock Market

The S&P/TSX Energy Index today is at 237 (unchanged from last week). We believe we are near the climactic phase when disorderly pricing occurs, but for investors, the best time to BUY bargains as others run away. We like to BUY when stocks are cheap and being ignored. Bargains are clearly being seen now. May should provide the next great window to add to favourite positions at prices 5-10% lower than today.

Investors should decide what you want your energy weighting to be for this long energy super cycle. Our BUY List includes ideas from the Pipeline/Infrastructure/Royalty area, Canadian oil and natural gas ideas, energy service ideas and companies working internationally. Our list includes large Conservative ideas and small to large caps in our Growth and Entrepreneurial categories. Add to your current ideas or add new ideas. We expect that WTI should lift above US$80/b in Q4/25 and global demand should exceed supplies at that time. We see WTI prices above US$90/b consistently during 2026. 

If you would like to receive future SER Action BUY Recommendations, become a subscriber. https://schachterenergyreport.ca/subscriptions/

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