Eye on Energy

Large US Crude Inventory Build Drags WTI Below US$80/b. There Is An Inventory Excess Around The World, Even Lower Prices Expected In The Near Term. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Rising and pernicious US inflation now means that the US is unlikely to see a pivot and a cut in rates before the US […]

Large Increases In US Commercial Crude Stocks And Components, Highlights Oversupplies. Crude Overpriced If Not For Geopolitical Risk. We will be moving our office in the last two weeks of April so our next ‘Eye On Energy’ will come out on May 1st, subject to our computers and tech being up and running on Friday

Fear Of War Directly Between Iran And Israel Lifts Crude Prices US$6/b Over The Last Week. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Decent US economic growth accompanied by rising inflation (CPI and PPI) is making the pivot to lower rates more difficult for the Fed. The US 10-Year Treasury yield has risen from 4.09% at

US Crude Inventories Rise For Commercial Stocks And At Cushing. WTI Likely To Fall Below US$80/b Shortly. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Rising inflation pressure globally and decent economic growth are making it harder for the Fed to reduce interest rates. Investors have an expectation that the first of three 25 BP cuts will

Ukraine Bombing Of Russian Refineries Adds US$2/b To War Premium Over The Last Week. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Today’s FOMC meeting and press conference by Chairman Powell thereafter, reiterated their plan to have three rate cuts of 25 BP each later this year. When, was left ambiguous. While there has been significant progress

Ukraine Drone Attacks On Key Russian Refineries Boosts Crude Prices. Global Economic, Political & Military Update The hope that US inflation has been tamed was rebuked with the CPI data released yesterday. US CPI month over month rose 0.4% or 4.8% annualized, more than double the Fed’s target rate and the second month of hot

OPEC Contemplating Extending Its Quota Cuts To Year End Bouys Crude Prices. Global Economic, Political & Military Update The Bank of Canada announced that they would keep their overnight rate at 5% as underlying inflation still persists. They also plan on keeping their quantitative tightening (QT) measures. The C$ improved 31 ticks to 73.88 on

OPEC Discussing Extending Its Production Cuts For One More Quarter Lifts Crude Prices Modestly. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Mixed economic data in the US continues with some data showing a slowing economy but others indicating inflation reversings to the upside. This stagflation pivot is not what the bond and stock market want to

Weak US Demand And Rising Commercial Stocks Likely To Cause Near Term Correction In WTI Price. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Mixed economic data in the US, with some indicators like manufacturing weakening are being offset by rising inflation after many months of declines. The Fed meeting notes out this week (from the last

Crude Oil War Premium Expands US$3.50/b Over The Last Week As Houthis Continue Attacks In Red Sea. Global Economic, Political & Military Update The surprisingly hot US CPI data yesterday drove the Dow down over 520 points to 38,273 and at its worst was down over 700 points, before a late afternoon recovery. The US