Eye on Energy

Crude Prices Lift On Expectation Of Strong Summer Driving Season. We Are Skeptical! Global Economic, Political & Military Update Economic data in the US so far is not supportive of the Fed lowering their Fed Funds rate the three times previously assumed. The FOMC meeting last week concluded with officials penciling in just one rate […]

Total US Stocks Grew 11.8 Mb Last Week. Lower WTI Prices Ahead. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Economic data in the US so far is not supportive of the Fed lowering their Fed Funds rate. Today’s CPI report was benign coming in at 3.4% for core, so the Fed is likely to continue its

WTI Crude Plunges Over US$4/b to US$73.10/b As OPEC Plans To Open The Spigots In Q4/24. Global Economic, Political & Military Update OPEC’s announcement to gradually phase out the 2.2 Mb/d of quota cuts (starting October 1st) was not received well by the markets. In the details an agreement to give the UAE a 300

Total US Inventories Grew By 13.2 Mb Last Week. Crude Prices Under Pressure. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Bearish commentary from the Fed meeting notes and repetitive comments by Fed officials that they see no reason to lower interest rates in the near term has spooked markets. There have even been some officials saying

US Stock Build Adds To Downside Price Pressure. A Breach Of US$75/b Is Likely In The Near Term. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Market bulls lifted the Dow over 40,000 last week but worries about interest rates and Treasury record refundings have pulled it back to 39,800, a still overvalued level. Everyone is waiting

WTI Breaches US$77/b On Weaker US Demand And Growing Inventories. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Market bulls jumped all over the bond and stock markets on the tepid CPI report today. They have renewed the call for the Fed to cut rates at their September FOMC meeting. We suspect this is premature as PPI

WTI Crude Oil Falls On Weaker US Demand And Rising Inventories. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Inflation pressure persists in the US leaving the Fed little room to lower rates at the coming meetings. Insurance, housing, food, electricity costs are all making consumers less able to afford what would have been considered basics. Going

Large US Crude Inventory Build Drags WTI Below US$80/b. There Is An Inventory Excess Around The World, Even Lower Prices Expected In The Near Term. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Rising and pernicious US inflation now means that the US is unlikely to see a pivot and a cut in rates before the US

Large Increases In US Commercial Crude Stocks And Components, Highlights Oversupplies. Crude Overpriced If Not For Geopolitical Risk. We will be moving our office in the last two weeks of April so our next ‘Eye On Energy’ will come out on May 1st, subject to our computers and tech being up and running on Friday

Fear Of War Directly Between Iran And Israel Lifts Crude Prices US$6/b Over The Last Week. Global Economic, Political & Military Update Decent US economic growth accompanied by rising inflation (CPI and PPI) is making the pivot to lower rates more difficult for the Fed. The US 10-Year Treasury yield has risen from 4.09% at